Economic Growth After Debt Surges

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Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic, and surged further in 2020. The high indebteness raises concern

Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

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Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending n

Global Waves of Debt

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many

The Volatility Machine

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This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis comb

Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation

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We revisit the empirical relationship between private/public debt and output, and build a model that reproduces it. In the model, the government provides financ