IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1

Released on by Mr.Robert P. Flood
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  • IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1 Book Detail

  • Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
  • Release Date : 2002-04-18
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Genre : Business & Economics
  • Pages : 166
  • ISBN 13 : 9781589060975
  • File Size : 39,39 MB
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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1 by Mr.Robert P. Flood PDF Summary

Book Description: This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.

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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1

File Size : 87,87 MB
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This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3

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This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Coi

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 2

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 2

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Total View : 2258 Views
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This paper explores sources of the output collapse in Russia during transition. A modified growth-accounting framework is developed that takes into account chan