Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

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  • Leading Indicators of Currency Crises Book Detail

  • Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
  • Release Date : 1997-07-01
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Genre : Business & Economics
  • Pages : 44
  • ISBN 13 : 1451955863
  • File Size : 47,47 MB

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by Graciela Laura Kaminsky PDF Summary

Book Description: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

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