Long-Run Growth Forecasting

Released on by Stefan Bergheim
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  • Long-Run Growth Forecasting Book Detail

  • Author : Stefan Bergheim
  • Release Date : 2008-03-29
  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • Genre : Business & Economics
  • Pages : 194
  • ISBN 13 : 354077680X
  • File Size : 32,32 MB
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Long-Run Growth Forecasting by Stefan Bergheim PDF Summary

Book Description: This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.

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Long-Run Growth Forecasting

Long-Run Growth Forecasting

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This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 count

Forecasting U.S. Investment

Forecasting U.S. Investment

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The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consum