Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence

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  • Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence Book Detail

  • Author : Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques
  • Release Date : 2024-03-08
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Genre : Business & Economics
  • Pages : 32
  • ISBN 13 :
  • File Size : 92,92 MB

Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence by Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques PDF Summary

Book Description: When uncertain about inflation persistence, central banks are well-advised to adopt a robust strategy when setting interest rates. This robust approach, characterized by a "better safe than sorry" philosophy, entails incurring a modest cost to safeguard against a protracted period of deviating inflation. Applied to the post-pandemic period of exceptional uncertainty and elevated inflation, this strategy would have called for a tightening bias. Specifically, a high level of uncertainty surrounding wage, profit, and price dynamics requires a more front-loaded increase in interest rates compared to a baseline scenario which the policymaker fully understands how shocks to those variables are transmitted to inflation and output. This paper provides empirical evidence of such uncertainty and estimates a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the euro area to derive a robust interest rate path for the ECB which serves to illustrate the case for insuring against inflation turning out to have greater persistence.

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Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring t