The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty

Released on by Sandile Hlatshwayo
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  • The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty Book Detail

  • Author : Sandile Hlatshwayo
  • Release Date : 2016-09-23
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Genre : Business & Economics
  • Pages : 30
  • ISBN 13 : 1475540469
  • File Size : 90,90 MB
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The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty by Sandile Hlatshwayo PDF Summary

Book Description: In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature has put forward a number of possible explanations, from multi-national supply-chains to muted exchange rate pass-through. This research explores the role of policy uncertainty in reducing the responsiveness of exports to relative price changes. We construct a novel “news chatter” measure of policy uncertainty and examine how it, paired with other supply-side constraints, can improve our understanding of export performance. We find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to the REER and has short and long-run level effects on export performance. Finally, we show that a measure of competitiveness that adjusts for uncertainty and supply-side constraints greatly outperforms the REER in tracking exports performance.

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The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty

The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty

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In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER